How we predict
Every prediction on KickPredict is data-driven, not opinion-based. Our ensemble model combines five sub-models with self-tuning weights:
- 50% market consensus from 13 bookmakers (overround removed)
- 20% ELO+ rating with home advantage (+100 ELO) and World Cup K-factor 40
- 15% form correction over the last 5 international matches, recent ones weighted 5×
- 10% H2H record with sample-size scaling for robust estimates
- 5% context: travel distance, altitude, acclimatisation, weather, referee
Model weights are recalibrated daily based on the rolling 30-day hit-rate (Layer 10 auto-tune). The hit-rate is publicly tracked at kickpredict.app/accuracy — we hide nothing.